Conservative Pollster Shows Kamala Harris Leading Trump in Key Swing State

New polling from conservative polling company Rasmussen Reports shows Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Michigan.
The Democratic presidential ticket has seen a significant reversal in the polls since President Joe Biden made the decision to step aside from the race on July 21 and endorse his vice president, Harris. Now formally the Democrats’ nominee, Harris has surged in the polls—leading Trump, the Republican nominee, in many national and some swing state polling whereas Biden was generally lagging behind.
Trump has been dismissive of the polling, saying last week that he’s “leading by a lot.” In a news conference on Thursday, he also pointed to 2016, when many polls showed him trailing his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton. Trump ultimately won a narrow victory in the Electoral College despite losing the popular vote.
Newsweek has reached out to the Trump and Harris campaigns for comment via email on Sunday.
Rasmussen’s new poll, which was carried out from August 13 to 17, shows Harris narrowly ahead of Trump by 1 point in a head-to-head matchup. The vice president has the support of 48 percent of Michiganders, compared to 47 percent who back the former president.
Harris’ lead expands to three points when third-party candidates are factored into the polling. In that scenario, Harris has the backing of 47 percent of respondents and Trump is supported by 44 percent. Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver and independent candidate Cornel West each receive 1 percent support. The poll included 1,093 likely Michigan voters.
Michigan is seen as a pivotal swing state, which could be key to determining which candidate ultimately wins in the Electoral College. Trump narrowly won Michigan in 2016, but Biden won the state back for Democrats in 2020. Prior to Trump’s 2016 win, Michigan had not gone for a Republican since 1988.
Notably, another new Rasmussen poll in Pennsylvania, conducted during the same dates, shows a tight race. In that survey, Trump is 1 point ahead in a head-to-head matchup with Harris. However, the Democrat is 1 point ahead when the third-party candidates are factored in.
Head-to-head, Trump is at 47 percent and Harris is at 46 percent in Pennsylvania. When the independent contenders are included, Harris remains steady at 46 percent, but Trump drops 2 points, to 45 percent. The poll included 1,312 likely Pennsylvania voters.
Similar to Michigan, Pennsylvania went for Trump in 2016 and then flipped back to Biden in 2020. The eastern state also had not gone for a Republican since 1988 prior to Trump’s win.
Harris leads Trump in polling averages of Michigan and Pennsylvania. ABC News’ polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight has Harris leading Trump by an average of 2.6 percent in Michigan and by about 1.4 percent in Pennsylvania.
In Michigan, Harris is at an average of 45.9 percent compared to Trump’s 43.3 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight. The Democrat is at 46.1 percent in Pennsylvania and Trump is at 44.7 percent.
Silver Bulletin by Nate Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight who parted ways with ABC last year, shows Harris with an average of 46 percent compared to Trump’s 43.1 percent in Michigan. Silver’s Pennsylvania average has Harris at 46.2 percent and Trump at 44.7 percent.